RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF RESILIENCE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 2008-2009

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to carry out a retrospective analysis of the formation and development of the resilience of the socio-economic system in the conditions of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009. The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, as well as the annexation of Crimea and the start of hostilities in Donbas in 2014, are shocks that resulted from large-scale negative consequences for the socio-economic system of Ukraine. However, these events can be applied (with high probability) to the pre-shock period, the period of achieving "one" national economy, as well as the term of post-shock recovery. Therefore, it is essential to assess the resilience of the socio-economic system of Ukraine in the specified periods based on a retrospective section. The main tasks of the research are: retrospective analysis of the resilience of the socio-economic system of Ukraine in the conditions of the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009; analysis of the rate of recovery of the pre-shock trajectory of GDP per capita. It was determined that the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 had one of the most significant negative impacts in the context of the fall in the actual volume of Ukraine's GDP per capita. At the same time, the resilience of the socio-economic system in conditions of a global shock is only sometimes related to the economic well-being of this system and the pace of its pre-crisis economic growth. It was established that in the global financial and economic crisis, Ukraine generally could not resist inflation. Furthermore, it is substantiated that socio-economic systems to resist shock are not a constant parameter. Therefore, the system's stability against a specific shock does not guarantee stability against another (subsequent) shock. It has been established that Ukraine can resist a shock and restore the pre-shock trajectory of GDP per capita much faster than most economic leaders within the European Union and OECD countries. In addition, the socio-economic system of Ukraine showed a higher ability to withstand the shock of the crisis of 2008-2009 in terms of direct foreign investment compared to the European Union, OECD countries, and countries of Europe and Central Asia.